Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Household Transmission during the Omicron Era in Massachusetts: A Prospective, Case-Ascertained Study using Genomic Epidemiology (preprint)

Background: Households are a major setting for SARS-CoV-2 infections, but there remains a lack of knowledge regarding the dynamics of viral transmission, particularly in the setting of widespread pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 immunity and evolving variants. Methods: We conducted a prospective, case-ascertained household transmission study in the greater Boston area in March-July 2022. Anterior nasal swabs, along with clinical and demographic data, were collected for 14 days. Nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Whole genome sequencing was performed on high-titer samples. Results: We enrolled 33 households in a primary analysis set, with a median age of participants of 25 years old (range 2-66); 98% of whom had received at least 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. 58% of households had a secondary case during follow up and the secondary attack rate (SAR) for contacts infected was 39%. We further examined a strict analysis set of 21 households that had only 1 PCR+ case at baseline, finding an SAR of 22.5%. Genomic epidemiology further determined that there were multiple sources of infection for household contacts, including the index case and outside introductions. When limiting estimates to only highly probable transmissions given epidemiologic and genomic data, the SAR was 18.4%. Conclusions: Household contacts of a person newly diagnosed with COVID-19 are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the following 2 weeks. This is, however, not only due to infection from the household index case, but also because the presence of an infected household member implies increased SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Further studies to understand and mitigate household transmission are needed.

The HLA-II immunopeptidome of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Targeted synthetic vaccines have the potential to transform our response to viral outbreaks; yet the design of these vaccines requires a comprehensive knowledge of viral immunogens, including T-cell epitopes. Having previously mapped the SARS-CoV-2 HLA-I landscape, here we report viral peptides that are naturally processed and loaded onto HLA-II complexes in infected cells. We identified over 500 unique viral peptides from canonical proteins, as well as from overlapping internal open reading frames (ORFs), revealing, for the first time, the contribution of internal ORFs to the HLA-II peptide repertoire. Most HLA-II peptides co-localized with the known CD4+ T cell epitopes in COVID-19 patients. We also observed that two reported immunodominant regions in the SARS-CoV-2 membrane protein are formed at the level of HLA-II presentation. Overall, our analyses show that HLA-I and HLA-II pathways target distinct viral proteins, with the structural proteins accounting for most of the HLA-II peptidome and non-structural and non-canonical proteins accounting for the majority of the HLA-I peptidome. These findings highlight the need for a vaccine design that incorporates multiple viral elements harboring CD4+ and CD8+ T cell epitopes to maximize the vaccine effectiveness.

Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria. (preprint)

Identifying the dissemination patterns and impacts of a virus of economic or health importance during a pandemic is crucial, as it informs the public on policies for containment in order to reduce the spread of the virus. In this study, we integrated genomic and travel data to investigate the emergence and spread of the B.1.1.318 and B.1.525 variants of interest in Nigeria and the wider Africa region. By integrating travel data and phylogeographic reconstructions, we find that these two variants that arose during the second wave emerged from within Africa, with the B.1.525 from Nigeria, and then spread to other parts of the world. Our results show how regional connectivity in downsampled regions like Africa can often influence virus transmissions between neighbouring countries. Our findings demonstrate the power of genomic analysis when combined with mobility and epidemiological data to identify the drivers of transmission in the region, generating actionable information for public health decision makers in the region.

Viral Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron Infection in mRNA-Vaccinated Individuals Treated and Not Treated with Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir (preprint)

We measured viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in 36 mRNA-vaccinated individuals, 11 of whom were treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (NMV-r). We found that NMV-r was associated with greater incidence of viral rebound compared to no treatment. For those that did not rebound, NMV-r significantly reduced time to PCR conversion.

Antigen test swabs are comparable to nasopharyngeal swabs for sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Viral genomic surveillance has been integral in the global response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Surveillance efforts rely on the availability of representative clinical specimens from ongoing testing activities. However, testing practices have recently shifted due to the widespread availability and use of rapid antigen tests, which could lead to gaps in future monitoring efforts. As such, genomic surveillance strategies must adapt to include laboratory workflows that are robust to sample type. To that end, we compare the results of RT-qPCR and viral genome sequencing using samples from positive BinaxNOW COVID-19 Antigen Card swabs (N=555) to those obtained from previously collected nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs used for nucleic acid amplification testing (N=135). We show that swabs obtained from antigen cards are comparable in performance to clinical excess samples from NP swabs, providing a viable alternative. This validation permits the reliable expansion of viral genomic surveillance to cases identified in the clinic or home setting where rapid antigen tests are used.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance. (preprint)

Investment in Africa over the past year with regards to SARS-CoV-2 genotyping has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, exceeding 100,000 genomes generated to track the pandemic on the continent. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries able to sequence within their own borders, coupled with a decrease in sequencing turnaround time. Findings from this genomic surveillance underscores the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic but we observe repeated dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 variants within the continent. Sustained investment for genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve, particularly in the low vaccination landscape. These investments are very crucial for preparedness and response for future pathogen outbreaks.

Evidence of transmission from fully vaccinated individuals in a large outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Provincetown, Massachusetts (preprint)

Multiple summer events, including large indoor gatherings, in Provincetown, Massachusetts (MA), in July 2021 contributed to an outbreak of over one thousand COVID-19 cases among residents and visitors. Most cases were fully vaccinated, many of whom were also symptomatic, prompting a comprehensive public health response, motivating changes to national masking recommendations, and raising questions about infection and transmission among vaccinated individuals. To characterize the outbreak and the viral population underlying it, we combined genomic and epidemiological data from 467 individuals, including 40% of known outbreak-associated cases. The Delta variant accounted for 99% of sequenced outbreak-associated cases. Phylogenetic analysis suggests over 40 sources of Delta in the dataset, with one responsible for a single cluster containing 83% of outbreak-associated genomes. This cluster was likely not the result of extensive spread at a single site, but rather transmission from a common source across multiple settings over a short time. Genomic and epidemiological data combined provide strong support for 25 transmission events from, including many between, fully vaccinated individuals; genomic data alone provides evidence for an additional 64. Together, genomic epidemiology provides a high-resolution picture of the Provincetown outbreak, revealing multiple cases of transmission of Delta from fully vaccinated individuals. However, despite its magnitude, the outbreak was restricted in its onward impact in MA and the US, likely due to high vaccination rates and a robust public health response.

Comparative transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Alpha in New England, USA (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant quickly rose to dominance in mid-2021, displacing other variants, including Alpha. Studies using data from the United Kingdom and India estimated that Delta was 40-80% more transmissible than Alpha, allowing Delta to become the globally dominant variant. However, it was unclear if the ostensible difference in relative transmissibility was due mostly to innate properties of Deltas infectiousness or differences in the study populations. To investigate, we formed a partnership with SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs from all six New England US states. By comparing logistic growth rates, we found that Delta emerged 37-163% faster than Alpha in early 2021 (37% Massachusetts, 75% New Hampshire, 95% Maine, 98% Rhode Island, 151% Connecticut, and 163% Vermont). We next computed variant-specific effective reproductive numbers and estimated that Delta was 58-120% more transmissible than Alpha across New England (58% New Hampshire, 68% Massachusetts, 76% Connecticut, 85% Rhode Island, 98% Maine, and 120% Vermont). Finally, using RT-PCR data, we estimated that Delta infections generate on average [~]6 times more viral RNA copies per mL than Alpha infections. Overall, our evidence indicates that Deltas enhanced transmissibility could be attributed to its innate ability to increase infectiousness, but its epidemiological dynamics may vary depending on the underlying immunity and behavior of distinct populations.

The Case for Altruism in Institutional Diagnostic Testing (preprint)

Amid COVID-19, many institutions deployed vast resources to test their members regularly for safe reopening. This self-focused approach, however, not only overlooks surrounding communities but also remains blind to community transmission that could breach the institution. To test the relative merits of a more altruistic strategy, we built an epidemiological model that assesses the differential impact on case counts when institutions instead allocate a proportion of their tests to members' close contacts in the larger community. We found that testing outside the institution benefits the institution in all plausible circumstances, with the optimal proportion of tests to use externally landing at 45% under baseline model parameters. Our results were robust to local prevalence, secondary attack rate, testing capacity, and contact reporting level, yielding a range of optimal community testing proportions from 18% to 58%. The model performed best under the assumption that community contacts are known to the institution; however, it still demonstrated a significant benefit even without complete knowledge of the contact network.

DNA spike-ins enable confident interpretation of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data from amplicon-based sequencing (preprint)

The rapid global spread and continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has highlighted an unprecedented need for viral genomic surveillance and clinical viral sequencing. Amplicon-based sequencing methods provide a sensitive, low-cost and rapid approach but suffer a high potential for contamination, which can undermine lab processes and results. This challenge will only increase with expanding global production of sequences by diverse research groups for epidemiological and clinical interpretation. We present a novel approach using synthetic DNA spike-ins (SDSIs) to track samples through a sequencing workflow and detect inter-sample contamination. Applying this approach to the ARTIC Consortium's amplicon design, we define a series of best practices for Illumina-based sequencing and provide a detailed characterization of approaches to increase sensitivity for low-viral load samples incorporating the SDSIs. We demonstrate the utility and efficiency of the SDSI method amidst a real-time investigation of a suspected hospital cluster of SARS-CoV-2 cases.

A single-cell and spatial atlas of autopsy tissues reveals pathology and cellular targets of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused over 1 million deaths globally, mostly due to acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome, or direct complications resulting in multiple-organ failures. Little is known about the host tissue immune and cellular responses associated with COVID-19 infection, symptoms, and lethality. To address this, we collected tissues from 11 organs during the clinical autopsy of 17 individuals who succumbed to COVID-19, resulting in a tissue bank of approximately 420 specimens. We generated comprehensive cellular maps capturing COVID-19 biology related to patients demise through single-cell and single-nucleus RNA-Seq of lung, kidney, liver and heart tissues, and further contextualized our findings through spatial RNA profiling of distinct lung regions. We developed a computational framework that incorporates removal of ambient RNA and automated cell type annotation to facilitate comparison with other healthy and diseased tissue atlases. In the lung, we uncovered significantly altered transcriptional programs within the epithelial, immune, and stromal compartments and cell intrinsic changes in multiple cell types relative to lung tissue from healthy controls. We observed evidence of: alveolar type 2 (AT2) differentiation replacing depleted alveolar type 1 (AT1) lung epithelial cells, as previously seen in fibrosis; a concomitant increase in myofibroblasts reflective of defective tissue repair; and, putative TP63+ intrapulmonary basal-like progenitor (IPBLP) cells, similar to cells identified in H1N1 influenza, that may serve as an emergency cellular reserve for severely damaged alveoli. Together, these findings suggest the activation and failure of multiple avenues for regeneration of the epithelium in these terminal lungs. SARS-CoV-2 RNA reads were enriched in lung mononuclear phagocytic cells and endothelial cells, and these cells expressed distinct host response transcriptional programs. We corroborated the compositional and transcriptional changes in lung tissue through spatial analysis of RNA profiles in situ and distinguished unique tissue host responses between regions with and without viral RNA, and in COVID-19 donor tissues relative to healthy lung. Finally, we analyzed genetic regions implicated in COVID-19 GWAS with transcriptomic data to implicate specific cell types and genes associated with disease severity. Overall, our COVID-19 cell atlas is a foundational dataset to better understand the biological impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection across the human body and empowers the identification of new therapeutic interventions and prevention strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 infected cells present HLA-I peptides from canonical and out-of-frame ORFs (preprint)

T cell-mediated immunity may play a critical role in controlling and establishing protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 infection; yet the repertoire of viral epitopes responsible for T cell response activation remains mostly unknown. Identification of viral peptides presented on class I human leukocyte antigen (HLA-I) can reveal epitopes for recognition by cytotoxic T cells and potential incorporation into vaccines. Here, we report the first HLA-I immunopeptidome of SARS-CoV-2 in two human cell lines at different times post-infection using mass spectrometry. We found HLA-I peptides derived not only from canonical ORFs, but also from internal out-of-frame ORFs in Spike and Nucleoprotein not captured by current vaccines. Proteomics analyses of infected cells revealed that SARS-CoV-2 may interfere with antigen processing and immune signaling pathways. Based on the endogenously processed and presented viral peptides that we identified, we estimate that a pool of 24 peptides would provide one or more peptides for presentation by at least one HLA allele in 99% of the human population. These biological insights and the list of naturally presented SARS-CoV-2 peptides will facilitate data-driven selection of peptides for immune monitoring and vaccine development.

Safe and effective two-in-one replicon-and-VLP minispike vaccine for COVID-19 (preprint)

The large SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein is the main target of current COVID-19 vaccine candidates but can induce non-neutralizing antibodies, which may cause vaccination-induced complications or enhancement of COVID-19 disease. Besides, encoding of a functional S in replication-competent virus vector vaccines may result in the emergence of viruses with altered or expanded tropism. Here, we have developed a safe single round rhabdovirus replicon vaccine platform for enhanced presentation of the S receptor-binding domain (RBD). Structure-guided design was employed to build a chimeric minispike comprising the globular RBD linked to a transmembrane stem-anchor sequence derived from rabies virus (RABV) glycoprotein (G). Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) and RABV replicons encoding the minispike not only allowed expression of the antigen at the cell surface but also incorporation into the envelope of secreted non-infectious particles, thus combining classic vector-driven antigen expression and particulate virus-like particle (VLP) presentation. A single dose of a prototype replicon vaccine, VSV{Delta}G-minispike-eGFP (G), stimulated high titers of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in mice, equivalent to those found in COVID-19 patients. Boost immunization with the identical replicon further enhanced neutralizing activity. These results demonstrate that rhabdovirus minispike replicons represent effective and safe alternatives to vaccination approaches using replication-competent viruses and/or the entire S antigen.

Transmission of SARS-COV-2 from China to Europe and West Africa: a detailed phylogenetic analysis. (preprint)

Background: SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing the Covid-19 pandemic emerged in December 2019 in China and raised fears that it could overwhelm healthcare systems worldwide. In June 2020, all African countries registered human infections with SARS-CoV-2. The virus is mutating steadily and this is monitored by a well curated database of viral nucleotide sequences from samples taken from infected individual thus enabling phylogenetic analysis and phenotypic associations. Methods: We downloaded from the GISAID database, SARS-CoV-2 sequences established from four West African countries Ghana, Gambia, Senegal and Nigeria and then performed phylogenetic analysis employing the nextstrain pipeline. Based on mutations found within the sequences we calculated and visualized statistics characterizing clades according to the GISAID nomenclature. Results: We found country-specific patterns of viral clades: the later Europe-associated G-clades predominantly in Senegal and Gambia, and combinations of the earlier (L, S, V) and later clades in Ghana and Nigeria. Contrary to our expectations, the later Europe-associated G-clades emerged before the earlier clades. Detailed analysis of distinct samples showed that some of the earlier clades might have circulated latently and some reflect migration routes via Mali and Tunisia. Conclusions: The distinct patterns of viral clades in the West African countries point at its emergence from Europe and China via Asia and Europe. The observation that the later clades emerged before the earlier clades could be simply due to founder effects or due to latent circulation of the earlier clades. Only a marginal correlation of the G-clades associated with the D614G mutation could be identified with the relatively low case fatality (0.6-3.2).

SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variant D614G increases infectivity and retains sensitivity to antibodies that target the receptor binding domain (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein variant D614G supplanted the ancestral virus worldwide in a matter of months. Here we show that D614G was more infectious than the ancestral form on human lung cells, colon cells, and cells rendered permissive by ectopic expression of various mammalian ACE2 orthologs. Nonetheless, D614G affinity for ACE2 was reduced due to a faster dissociation rate. Assessment of the S protein trimer by cryo-electron microscopy showed that D614G disrupts a critical interprotomer contact and that this dramatically shifts the S protein trimer conformation toward an ACE2-binding and fusion-competent state. Consistent with the more open conformation, neutralization potency of antibodies targeting the S protein receptor-binding domain was not attenuated. These results indicate that D614G adopts conformations that make virion membrane fusion with the target cell membrane more probable but that D614G retains susceptibility to therapies that disrupt interaction of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein with the ACE2 receptor.

Individual-level Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic Risk (preprint)

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be informed by epidemic risk predictions given available data, including symptoms, contact patterns, and environmental factors. Here we propose a novel probabilistic formalism based on Individual-Level Models (ILMs) that offers rigorous formulas for the probability of infection of individuals, which can be parameterised via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) applied on compartmental models defined at the population level. We describe an approach where individual data collected in real-time is integrated with overall case counts to update the a predictor of the susceptibility of infection as a function of individual risk factors.

Integrated sample inactivation, amplification, and Cas13-based detection of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that new diagnostic technologies are essential for controlling disease transmission. Here, we develop SHINE (SHERLOCK and HUDSON Integration to Navigate Epidemics), a sensitive and specific integrated diagnostic tool that can detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA from unextracted samples. We combine the steps of SHERLOCK into a single-step reaction and optimize HUDSON to accelerate viral inactivation in nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva. SHINEs results can be visualized with an in-tube fluorescent readout -- reducing contamination risk as amplification reaction tubes remain sealed -- and interpreted by a companion smartphone application. We validate SHINE on 50 nasopharyngeal patient samples, demonstrating 90% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared to RT-PCR with a sample-to-answer time of 50 minutes. SHINE has the potential to be used outside of hospitals and clinical laboratories, greatly enhancing diagnostic capabilities.

CRISPR-based COVID-19 surveillance using a genomically-comprehensive machine learning approach (preprint)

The emergence and outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has rapidly become a global concern and has highlighted the need for fast, sensitive, and specific tools to surveil circulating viruses. Here we provide assay designs and experimental resources, for use with CRISPR-based nucleic acid detection, that could be valuable for ongoing surveillance. We provide assay designs for detection of 67 viral species and subspecies, including: SARS-CoV-2, phylogenetically-related viruses, and viruses with similar clinical presentation. The designs are outputs of algorithms that we are developing for rapidly designing nucleic acid detection assays that are comprehensive across genomic diversity and predicted to be highly sensitive and specific. Of our design set, we experimentally screened 4 SARS-CoV-2 designs with a CRISPR-Cas13 detection system and then extensively tested the highest-performing SARS-CoV-2 assay. We demonstrate the sensitivity and speed of this assay using synthetic targets with fluorescent and lateral flow detection. Moreover, our provided protocol can be extended for testing the other 66 provided designs. Assay designs are available at https://adapt.sabetilab.org/.